Weekly Market Positioning
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What happened this week in crypto?

Yet another week of significant price volatility unfolded as BTC blasted >$88K during the first half of the week before retreating to $82K over the weekend.

The week began with promising momentum. Bitcoin broke through the $86K resistance level after an extended period of consolidation. Market participants responded positively to this technical breakout.

This upward trajectory faced its first serious challenge when Trump announced substantial tariff proposals: 100% on Mexican automobiles and 10-25% on Chinese EVs. Initially, Bitcoin maintained its position around $87K, displaying notable stability compared to the automotive sector stocks.

Further pressure emerged from the Treasury auction, which pushed yields to their highest point since November. Despite this traditionally negative catalyst for risk assets, Bitcoin continued to hold near the $87K level through most of the trading week.

The weekend, however, brought a significant reversal. Selling pressure intensified, driving prices down to $82K and effectively erasing the week’s earlier gains. The bull flag pattern some technical analysts had identified failed to develop as expected.

This pattern of substantial upward movement followed by comparable downward corrections appears to be establishing itself as a consistent market characteristic.

It's clear we are in a chop regime and this is the new normal while we consolidate.

How am I positioning?

The market's giving us a pretty clear message right now. We're stuck in a range, and that's not changing anytime soon.

Short term traders should be loving this. Clear ranges mean clear opportunities (at least while it lasts). Buy the dip, sell the rip, rinse and repeat. If that's your game, I'd look at spot buys between $76K and $83K and sell towards the top of resistance closer to the high $80Ks. Those levels have shown decent support and resistance.

Looking ahead to the next couple weeks, we might see a technical push upward IMO. Quarter end rebalancing could be the catalyst here. Both ETFs and institutional players typically adjust their books, which often lifts tech and other risk assets. Bitcoin could catch that wave.

But let's be real. That's just a swing trade opportunity. The bigger picture still has some serious storm clouds.

First, consumer confidence keeps sliding. The data we got earlier this week was pretty grim, backing up what I've been saying for a while now. People are spending less, and that eventually hits everything. See below:

Second, I'm afraid of earnings quality deterioration for upcoming 1Q earnings season.

When earnings season kicks off in late April, we may be ok but that could be a core economic catalyst downwards if the poor guidance from companies like Delta earlier in the month is a canary across more companies.

So my approach is simple. Play the range if you're trading short term, but don't mistake a technical bounce for a fundamental shift and be in the mentality of capital preservation mode. The underlying issues haven't gone away - and usually big shifts in the economy don't manifest linearly.

Chop is the new regime + Steal my AI prompt library